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TL;DR
A November 8 report from ThorstenMeyerAI.com says U.S. factory employment reached a record 19.6 million in June 1979 and fell to a preliminary 12.7 million in October 2026. Manufacturing output was nearly twice its 1979 level in September 2026, but remained about 9% below its 2007 peak. The report also notes that China trade contributed to U.S. job losses, while the decline began before China joined the World Trade Organization.
The report draws on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics payroll series, which counts jobs on employers’ payrolls outside farming. It excludes self-employed workers and people employed in private households. The series begins in 1939. U.S. factories reached a record 19.553 million jobs in June 1979; by October 2026, the preliminary count was 12.7 million, or 8.0% of payroll jobs.
Factory employment’s share of payroll jobs peaked earlier: 38.8% in November 1943, compared with 21.7% in June 1979 and 8.0% in October 2026. The report says employment dropped by almost six million between January 2000 and February 2010, falling from 17.3 million to 11.4 million. The count later recovered somewhat, with a brief decline during the 2020 Covid shock.
To compare production, the report uses the Federal Reserve’s manufacturing industrial production index. It rose from 50.4 in June 1979 to 98.4 in September 2026, with the index set to 2017=100. That is 1.95 times the 1979 level. However, output peaked at 108.6 in December 2007 and was still about 9% below that level in September 2026. The report’s estimate of roughly three times as much output per factory job since 1979 is its own calculation, based on job counts rather than hours worked.
Fewer Jobs, Different Output Trend
The figures show why factory employment and industrial production should not be treated as interchangeable measures. A lower job count alongside higher output than in 1979 points to a major change in the relationship between workers and production over that period. But the report’s comparison does not isolate the causes: it does not establish how much of the change came from technology, workplace organization, trade, shifts in what factories make, or other factors.
The longer timeframe also matters. The report’s output figures do not show a continuing rise in production through the present: manufacturing output remains about 9% below its December 2007 high. For workers and communities, the employment decline marks a substantial shift from the period when factories accounted for a much larger share of U.S. payroll jobs. The figures describe the scale and timing of that shift, but do not determine what future factory work will look like.
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Three Countries, Different Peaks
The report places the U.S. numbers alongside trends in Germany and China, while noting that the countries’ measures are not fully comparable. Germany’s cited figures cover the producing sector, including manufacturing, construction, energy, water and mining. The share of workers in that sector was 49.2% in West Germany in 1965, according to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, and 22.9% in industry and construction in unified Germany in 2025. The report flags classification changes in 1970 and 1991.
For China, the report says employment in industry and construction peaked at 232 million in 2012. It also addresses the claim that U.S. factory jobs simply moved to China. The report says the U.S. decline began 22 years before China joined the World Trade Organization. It cites economists’ estimates that rising Chinese imports cost up to about one million U.S. factory jobs from 1999 to 2011, compared with almost six million U.S. factory jobs lost over that period.
The timing and estimates support a more qualified account than attributing the full U.S. decline to China. The cited material does not name the economists or studies behind the estimate in the provided text, and the number is presented as an estimate, not a direct count of jobs with one cause.
““The number to remember is 19.6 million.””
— Thorsten Meyer, ThorstenMeyerAI.com
Causes and Comparisons Remain Open
The figures establish changes in reported employment and an output index, but they do not explain how much of the job decline is attributable to automation or artificial intelligence. Although the source frames its subject around factory work and AI, the data presented here do not measure AI adoption, identify jobs changed by AI, or estimate AI’s effect on employment. The report also calculates output per job from employment counts, not hours worked, so it should not be read as a direct measure of worker productivity.
The October 2026 U.S. employment figure is explicitly preliminary. The report’s international comparisons also use different definitions and time series, including different coverage for Germany and the United States. The cited estimate of U.S. jobs affected by Chinese imports is attributed to economists collectively, but the supplied material does not identify the studies or methods. The report gives no specific explanation for the output decline since 2007.
Watch Revised Jobs and Output Data
The immediate next check is whether the preliminary October 2026 payroll figure changes when updated. Later releases of the BLS employment series and Federal Reserve production index will show whether factory jobs and output have moved from the levels reported here. The report does not identify a scheduled event or new forecast tied to its findings.
Any claim about AI’s effect on factory employment would require evidence beyond these historical totals, such as data on adoption, tasks and changes in staffing. Until such evidence is supplied, the figures support a comparison of employment and output trends, not a conclusion that AI caused the decline in factory jobs.
Key Questions
How many people worked in U.S. factories at the 1979 peak?
The report gives a seasonally adjusted peak of 19.553 million factory jobs in June 1979, rounded to 19.6 million.
How many U.S. factory jobs were there in October 2026?
The preliminary figure was 12.7 million, equal to 8.0% of U.S. payroll jobs, according to the report.
Was U.S. factory output lower than in 1979?
No. The report says the Federal Reserve manufacturing production index was 1.95 times its June 1979 level in September 2026. It was still about 9% below its December 2007 peak.
Does the report show that AI caused factory job losses?
No. It compares employment and output over time but provides no measure of AI adoption or estimate of AI’s effect on jobs. The causes of the employment decline are not apportioned in the figures presented.
Did Chinese imports account for all U.S. factory job losses?
No. The report says the U.S. decline began before China joined the World Trade Organization and cites economists’ estimates that rising Chinese imports cost up to about one million U.S. factory jobs from 1999 to 2011, out of almost six million lost over that period.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
