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Noah Smith, Brad DeLong and Dan Wang discussed the case for and against Anthropic in a recorded Hexapodia conversation, part of the podcast’s return as Substack Live sessions. Smith argued that frontier AI companies could become deeply embedded in other firms’ capital structures; DeLong and Wang were described as more skeptical. The source does not report an IPO filing, date or valuation.
Noah Smith, Brad DeLong and Dan Wang discussed the investment case for a potential Anthropic IPO in the first session of Hexapodia’s return, now presented as recorded Substack Live conversations. Smith made the bullish case that frontier AI companies could become closely tied to businesses across industries, while DeLong and Wang were described as more skeptical; the report does not say Anthropic has filed to go public.
Smith said the discussion was inspired by a post he had published the previous week about Anthropic. He characterized his position as a bull case, while describing DeLong and Wang as skeptics. The report does not provide a transcript of their full arguments or specify which points each made, so their views cannot be detailed further from the material available.
Smith’s central scenario is not that AI would replace all workers or that Anthropic would dominate every industry outright. Instead, he argued that companies might need partnerships with frontier AI developers to compete, potentially linking their capital structures to those developers rather than buying AI services at arm’s length. In his account, Anthropic, OpenAI and Google could become a small group of major players with affiliated businesses across many sectors.
The conversation was also the first installment in a new format for Hexapodia, Smith’s podcast with DeLong. Smith said the series would use Substack Live sessions that are recorded as podcasts and sent by email. He acknowledged that he arrived 20 minutes late to the first session after getting the time wrong, leaving DeLong and Wang to begin the conversation without him.
The Stakes Behind Smith’s IPO Case
The discussion connects Anthropic’s potential public-market future to a broader question: how AI could change the structure of firms, not only how much they spend on software. If companies need access to proprietary frontier models to compete, Smith’s argument suggests that some may form deeper ties with model developers than ordinary customer relationships. That would have implications for control, financing and competition across industries.
This remains a scenario presented by Smith, not a confirmed account of how companies will behave or a forecast established by the report. The distinction matters to readers evaluating the IPO discussion: the proposed value of Anthropic rests in part on a possible future economic arrangement, while the source supplies no valuation, financial projections, terms, or evidence that such arrangements are already widespread.
For investors, the exchange illustrates that enthusiasm about a possible listing can involve competing views about the durability and reach of frontier AI businesses. Smith disclosed that he has no current Anthropic position but would probably buy its stock if it goes public, unless circumstances change. He also said he owns stock in TypeSafe, an Anthropic competitor. Those disclosures are relevant when readers weigh his stated bullish view.
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Hexapodia’s Return and the Debate
Smith said longtime listeners had asked for the return of his Hexapodia podcast with economist Brad DeLong. Rather than describing a conventional episode release, he announced a series of live discussions on Substack that would also be recorded and distributed as podcasts and email editions. The Anthropic conversation was the first in that format.
Smith linked his argument to a 2026 paper by Imas, Koh and Legg, whose authors are identified in the source as economists at Google DeepMind. The paper’s abstract presents a model in which improved AI coordination can lead to a shift toward larger, more concentrated, AI-heavy firms. Smith said the model captures some of the dynamics he had in mind, while describing his own scenario as more complex: humans and AI would complement one another, with people contributing private data that AI can use more effectively.
The paper is offered as a related economic model, not as proof that Anthropic or any other AI company will acquire influence across industries. The report gives no further details about the paper’s methods or findings beyond the abstract excerpt, and the conversation itself is framed as a debate over a possible future rather than a report of a completed business change.
IPO Timing and Terms Remain Unknown
The source does not establish that Anthropic has filed for an IPO, announced a listing date, set a valuation or disclosed offering terms. It also does not give financial results or specify what conditions would need to be met before a listing. The phrase “when it IPOs” appears in Smith’s statement about a possible future purchase; it is not evidence that an offering is scheduled.
The full arguments made by DeLong and Wang are not included in the report, beyond Smith’s description of them as more skeptical. The paper’s model likewise does not establish that firms will become subsidiaries of frontier AI companies. Whether companies will form the deep financial and organizational ties Smith describes, or instead keep buying AI services through ordinary commercial arrangements, remains an open question.
Further Sessions and IPO Developments
Smith said Hexapodia would continue as Substack Live conversations, with recordings distributed as podcasts and email editions. The supplied report does not give a date or topic for the next session, so a follow-up schedule cannot be confirmed from this material.
On the IPO question, readers would need a direct announcement or regulatory filing from Anthropic to confirm whether a public offering is planned and on what terms. Until then, the debate described here is about a potential investment and the economic role of frontier AI firms, not a completed listing process.
Key Questions
Has Anthropic announced an IPO?
The supplied report does not say Anthropic announced or filed for an IPO. Smith discusses buying its stock if it goes public, but gives no confirmed date or offering details.
What was Smith’s argument about Anthropic?
Smith argued that businesses might need close ties to frontier AI developers to compete, potentially linking their capital structures to those companies rather than simply purchasing AI services. He presented this as a possible future scenario.
What were DeLong and Wang’s views?
Smith characterized Brad DeLong and Dan Wang as more skeptical than he was. The report does not include enough detail to attribute specific arguments to either of them.
What did Smith disclose about his investments?
Smith said he had no current position in Anthropic but would probably buy its stock if it IPOs, unless something major changes. He also disclosed that he owns stock in TypeSafe, an Anthropic competitor.
How will the Hexapodia series be released?
Smith said the revived series would consist of Substack Live conversations, recorded as podcasts and sent out by email. The first session featured DeLong and Wang before Smith joined late.
Source: noahpinion.blog
