TL;DR
The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 3.1%, while expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth, higher unemployment and tighter access to credit; the survey is one input to the ECB’s policy analysis, not a statement of its policymakers’ views.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and the expected unemployment rate increased. The monthly survey offers a snapshot of household views that the ECB uses alongside other data for policy analysis, but the results do not represent the views of ECB decision-makers or staff.
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Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months also edged up, to 3.6% from 3.5%. Longer-term expectations were steady: consumers put inflation three years ahead at 2.9% and five years ahead at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next year increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The release did not give a numerical measure of that uncertainty.
Respondents’ expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth over the same period increased to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months reached 5.3%, up from 5.2%. These are survey responses about nominal changes; the release does not present them as measures of inflation-adjusted income or spending.
Consumers’ expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. The ECB noted that respondents’ expected future unemployment rate remained only slightly above their perceived current rate of 10.6%, which it described as suggesting a broadly stable labour-market outlook. The figures are respondents’ expectations, not official forecasts or observed outcomes.
Households See More Cost Pressure
The results show a mixed household outlook: short-term inflation expectations rose, but longer-term median expectations did not change. That distinction matters because the survey records whether consumers’ views are shifting across different time horizons; it does not by itself establish where inflation will go or how the ECB will set interest rates.
Expected growth and employment moved in a less favourable direction in September. At the same time, consumers expected stronger nominal income and spending growth. These responses can help policymakers and analysts track how households perceive economic conditions, but the survey does not prove a change in actual income, spending, growth or employment.
Credit responses add another household-finance signal. The net share reporting tighter access to credit over the past year increased compared with August, as did the net share expecting tighter conditions over the coming year. The ECB release did not state the size of either change, so the direction—not a quantified scale—is what can be reported.
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How the ECB Survey Works
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB says the results complement other sources used in its policy analysis. Its September fieldwork took place from 27 August through 28 September 2026, meaning responses were collected over several weeks rather than on a single day.
The ECB’s release says its statistics refer to the 2% winsorised mean unless otherwise indicated, while the inflation figures highlighted in the summary are described as medians. Those measures are not interchangeable. The release provides country-level and euro-area aggregate results through the ECB Data Portal and its website, with underlying microdata and methodological information available on the survey page.
The ECB also cautions that survey findings do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. They are reported perceptions and expectations, not a policy announcement. The September results therefore describe what participating consumers said during the survey period, rather than a new ECB decision or a definitive assessment of the euro-area economy.
“Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.”
— European Central Bank
Limits of the September Results
The survey records consumer perceptions and expectations; it does not establish what inflation, growth, unemployment or household finances will actually be. The release gives no numerical size for the increase in inflation uncertainty or the changes in net credit-access responses, limiting comparisons of their magnitude. It also does not explain the causes of the month-to-month movements.
Although the ECB reported differences by income and age for some measures, the results do not establish why those gaps exist or whether they will persist. For example, lower-income respondents continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations on average than higher-income respondents, while younger respondents reported lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older groups. These are survey patterns, not evidence of individual outcomes.
October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. Those results may show whether September’s changes in short-term inflation expectations, growth outlook and credit concerns continued, reversed or remained broadly stable. Until then, the September release is the latest survey snapshot in the material provided.
Readers can consult the ECB Data Portal and the survey’s data and methodological information for detailed aggregates and microdata. Any interpretation of the next release should keep the survey’s limits in view: it measures responses from consumers in 11 euro-area countries and complements, rather than replaces, other economic indicators used by the ECB.
Key Questions
What happened to consumers’ inflation expectations in September?
The median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead stayed at 2.9%, and those five years ahead remained at 2.5%.
What did respondents expect for growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%; both are survey expectations, not official outcomes.
Did consumers expect tighter credit conditions?
Yes. The ECB reported that the net percentage of households saying access to credit had tightened over the previous 12 months increased compared with August. The net percentage expecting tighter conditions in the next 12 months also rose, though the release did not quantify either change.
Do the survey findings represent the ECB’s policy view?
No. The ECB says the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. The survey is one source used for policy analysis alongside other data.
When are the next results due?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
