TL;DR
Get business pricing on office and shipping supplies
- Business-only prices and quantity discounts
- Tax-exempt purchasing
- Multiple users, one account, clear invoices
TD Securities says copper faces further downside after Democratic gains in the US midterm elections weakened expectations for aggressive import tariffs and raised questions about future data-centre demand. London copper fell to about $13,779 per tonne on Friday, its lowest level since July. Tight mine supply and electrification demand could cushion any decline, analysts at BMI say.
TD Securities says copper could fall further after Democratic gains in US midterm elections weakened market expectations for aggressive copper tariffs and raised doubts about projected demand from data centres. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell to about $13,779 per tonne, or $6.25 per pound, by late Friday in London, their lowest level since July, according to the report in The Northern Miner.
The price has retreated from an intraday high of nearly $6.80 per pound in September as traders reassess demand prospects and the incentive to build copper stocks in the United States. In a note published Thursday, TD Securities managing director and global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said the metal remained exposed to further declines. He said a further $500 per tonne drop would not be a major surprise. Against Thursday’s LME close of $13,843 per tonne, that would amount to about 3.6%.
TD estimates US copper inventories at about 1.6 million tonnes. If the expected tariff advantage narrows or disappears, traders may have less reason to ship additional metal into the country. A slowdown in imports would not, by itself, show that US industrial consumption had fallen by the same amount: the inventory movement reflects where metal is stored as well as how much is being used.
Research firm BMI also identifies tariff uncertainty as a near-term driver, but says mine constraints and electrification demand may cushion a correction. BMI forecasts copper will average $13,500 per tonne this year and $12,900 in 2027. Those are forecasts, not observed prices or guarantees. The source does not specify the precise assumptions behind the estimates beyond the supply and tariff risks it discusses.
Tariffs and Stockpiles Shape Price Risk
The debate matters because US policy has changed where copper is held and how traders price future deliveries. The possibility of tariffs has encouraged shipments into American warehouses, while uncertainty about whether proposed duties will proceed could weaken that incentive. If inflows slow, the immediate effect may be a redistribution of inventories rather than a comparable fall in industrial use. But the changing trade flows can still affect prices and the availability of metal in other markets.
Demand expectations add another source of uncertainty. Data centres require substantial electricity infrastructure, and copper is used in power systems and wiring. TD argues that political resistance to new projects could reduce the contribution of AI-related construction to expected copper demand. That is a risk to projections, not evidence that data-centre copper consumption has already declined. For buyers and producers, the tension is between possible weaker demand and a supply chain that BMI says is facing mine constraints.
Products Worth Considering
HP Sprocket Portable 2×3 Instant Photo Printer, Lilac, with ZINK Paper Bundle
LG 27UP850K-W 27-inch 4K UHD IPS Monitor
FLEXISPOT ErgoX Ergonomic Office Chair with Footrest, Black
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
How US Tariff Plans Reshaped Trade
The US copper proclamation issued in July 2025 set out possible duties on refined copper: 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, subject to a later presidential determination. The proposed refined-copper levies have not been enacted. Separate 50% duties on certain semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products took effect in August 2025. The distinction matters: the proposed refined-metal duties remain uncertain, while the separate duties are already in force.
Anticipation of possible tariffs widened the price difference between US Comex copper and London metal, encouraging shipments into US warehouses. BMI reported that Comex inventories rose about 62% from January through Wednesday and that those warehouses held about 70% of global exchange copper stocks on Oct. 30. These figures describe exchange stocks and the stated periods; they do not establish that global copper supply increased by the same amount.
The trade is concentrated: Chile supplied 68% of US refined copper imports during 2021–24, followed by Canada at 16%, according to US Geological Survey data cited in the report. China, meanwhile, produced an estimated 14 million tonnes of refined copper in 2025, nearly half of the global total. BMI said the Yangshan import premium paid by Chinese buyers for immediately available metal exceeded $200 per tonne on Wednesday, its highest level since records began in 2017.
“With many states slated for significant AI data center development turning blue, and opposition to new construction potentially growing, AI-driven copper demand could fall meaningfully short of current projections.”
— Bart Melek, in a TD Securities note
Tariff Decisions and Demand Remain Unsettled
The election results do not themselves change the tariff schedule. The proposed duties on refined copper remain subject to a future presidential determination, and the report does not establish whether or when that decision will be made. It is also unclear how much political opposition to data-centre construction will affect projects or their eventual copper requirements.
Price forecasts are views from TD and BMI, not confirmed outcomes. The scale of any inventory slowdown, the direction of US and overseas price differences, and the timing of supply disruptions remain uncertain. Mine constraints could support prices, but the report does not quantify how far they might offset weaker demand or reduced US stockpiling.
Watch the Tariff Decision and Mine Output
Market attention is likely to remain on the US administration’s decision over possible refined-copper duties and on whether price differences continue to attract shipments into American warehouses. Traders will also watch inventory data for signs that the stockpiling trend is slowing, while tracking evidence of opposition to planned data-centre construction.
On supply, BMI cut its 2026 mine-production growth forecast to 1.1% from 2.4%, citing weakness in Chile and constraints at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg operation in Indonesia and Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Those sites and broader mine output are important counterweights to the demand risks identified by TD. The next price direction will depend on how these policy, inventory and production developments combine; neither research group’s forecast fixes the outcome.
Key Questions
Why does TD Securities think copper could fall further?
TD says Democratic gains in the US midterms may reduce expectations for aggressive copper tariffs and increase political resistance to data-centre projects, creating risks for stockpiling and forecast demand.
How low did London copper trade on Friday?
Three-month LME copper fell to about $13,779 per tonne, or $6.25 per pound, by late Friday in London. The report said this was its lowest level since July.
Are the proposed US tariffs on refined copper in force?
No. The 2025 proclamation described possible refined-copper duties of 15% from January 2027 and 30% in 2028, subject to a later presidential determination. Separate 50% duties on certain semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products took effect in August 2025.
What could limit a copper price decline?
BMI points to mine constraints and electrification demand as potential support. It cited production challenges in Chile and at the Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula operations, while cutting its forecast for 2026 mine-production growth to 1.1% from 2.4%.
Does slower US importing mean copper consumption is falling?
Not necessarily. TD says reduced stockpiling incentives could slow imports, but that would not automatically mean an equivalent decline in industrial consumption. Imports and warehouse inventories reflect trade flows and metal location as well as end use.
Source: northernminer.com
